Gabon's Longtime Leader Dies

Yes, the “president” of Gabon is dead. You haven’t heard? Well that is no wonder, because it seems of little significance, however when I saw this in the paper yesterday, I began to formulate an opinion on what could be in store for this country in the future. You see, at this very moment, multiple African nations are engaged in civil wars (Congo, Sudan, Somalia), and still others are having problems over leadership (Zimbabwe, Egypt). I believe that Gabon could now be on its way toward trepidations of this nature. The former president, Omar Bongo, had been heading the government of the country since its independence from France in the nineteen-sixties. During this time, it has gone in and out of one party rule, and Bongo has been accused of fixing elections by the opposition. Upon his death, the speaker of the senate took control of the country, and she will have 45 days to begin organizing new elections. Now, Gabon is a democracy, but for all intents and purposes the country has been ruled by one man for the past forty-odd years. The coming election will be the first wide-open election since the initial one that put Bongo in office. There were elections every seven years, but the winner was already fairly clear before the votes were even counted. Now, there are different circumstances. The ruling party has now lost its figurehead, and votes will be harder to come by as the opposition has continued to grow in support, and without a tested leader, people will be wary to vote for whatever candidate the ruling party will select. Some conjecture that Bongo’s son, Ali Ben Bongo, has been groomed for the job, and will run for the presidency, but still many others believe that he is uninterested. We will know sometime in the next month. The point is, African nations, (and not just African nations, but for the purposes of this piece) have historically had trouble with elections. With such a heated opposition of the ruling party, there is a high potential for volatile situations. I would not be surprised if, sometime in the next five years, we see some type of violent opposition (if the ruling party retains control), or a military coupe (if the opposition gains the office). Of course I could be completely off base, as I admittedly have close to no specific knowledge of Gabonese politics, but if general trends continue, my predictions may not be far from the eventual truth.